Oscar Predictions

I'm too lazy to go through all the tech categories so I'm just going to stick to the majors. I'll be up at 7:30 in the morning to post the nominees as they are announced.

Best Picture

Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

This has been the group being predicted the past few weeks and I don't see anything changing. The only two with an even outside chance are Letters From Iwo Jima or United 93.

Lead Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, Last King of Scotland

Can Sacha Baron Cohen sneak into the group? He has the years most talked about performance. Ryan Gosling could very easily be bumped having not been nominated for the SAG or Golden Globes.

CORRECTION: Turns out that Ryan Gosling was nominated for the SAG. I still feel he is the most likely to be bumped though.

Lead Actress

Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

All five of these women seem to be a lock.

Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson, The Departed

Brad Pitt, Babel

Djimon Hounsou for Blood Diamond could bump one of these five out. I included Haley because, well, because he was in Breaking Away and Bad News Bears. That's enough for me. I would also like to see Mark Wahlberg nominated here.

Supporting Actress

Adrianna Barraza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

This will be a young group if all five make the final list. I guess it doesn't really matter, it seems Jenifer Hudson already has the award in the bag.

Director

Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Dayton/Faris, Little Miss Sunshine
Alejandro González Iñárritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed

There always seems to be a surprise in this category, rarely do the nominees match up perfectly with the nominees for best picture. I have a fear that Dayton and Faris could be knocked out. This could lead to Clint Eastwood, Paul Greengrass, or (hopefully) Alfonso Cuaron

Screenplay, Original

Babel, Guillermo Arriagathe
Little Miss Sunshine, Michael Arndt
Pan's Labyrinth, Guillermo Del Toro
The Queen, Peter Morgan
Volver, Pedro Almodovar,

This is one category that United 93 has a legit change of sneaking into, but will Academy members feel the film is too improvised to merit the nomination? If it does make the list it will probably bump off one of the foreign language films.

Screenplay, Adapted

The Departed, William Monahan
The Devil Wears Prada, Aline Brosh McKenna
Dreamgirls, Bill Condon
Little Children, Todd Field
Thank You for Smoking, Jason Reitman

Children of Men deserves a spot in here but it seems the one complaint people have had with it has been the script. I wouldn't be surprised if Notes on a Scandal made the the final list.

Animated Feature

Cars
Flushed Away
Happy Feet

I had to guess three, so there are three.

I left off the Documentary Feature category. I haven't seen enough or know enough about the potential nominees to make an accurate guess. I hope that Jesus Camp makes the final five though.