With so many great movies released this is sort of an exercise in futility. The only thing that is certain about tomorrow is that there will be a number of surprises.
PICTUREI'm hoping for Into the Wild to make it into the final five but I'm not optimistic. Even if that film is snubbed this would be a really strong group. I also wouldn't be upset if Atonement somehow made it's way into the group but it has been left out of practically all of the guild awards that it doesn't seem likely. It is always exciting to see these read live because you sort of get a sense of what the best picture nominees will be when you start seeing the film showing up in other categories. Sort of like a film can ride a final wave into a large group of nominations that is totally unexpected.
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTINGThere always seems to be on wild card in this category. A director who's film doesn't make it in the best picture category but sneaks into this one. I almost went with Sydney Lumet or David Cronenberg here but ended up just picked the same list that the DGA went with.
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Julian Schnabel
Into the Wild - Sean Penn
Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy
No Country for Old Men - Joel & Ethan Coen
There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLEIt seems like four of these slots are locked. The fifth one could go any number of directions but I am guessing it will be Laura Linney. Cate Banchett in The Golden Age, Keira Knightly in Atonement (if that film is picking up nominees in other categories), or just a complete surprise. Sadly, I have not seen many of the films that are supposed to have the best lead female performances.
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose
Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart
Laura Linney - The Savages
Ellen Page - Juno
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLEI would like Ryan Gosling to show up here but I don't know who I would have him replaces. Actually, I would probably have him replace Depp but that ain't going to happen. Especially since Gosling was nominated last year and his film was not as widely seen as the others. If The Diving Bell and the Butterfly is picking up momentum I could see Mathieu Amalric being a surprise contender.
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Daniel Day Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Emile Hirsch - Into the Wild
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLEIf I had my way I would put Emily Mortimer from Lars and the Real Girl, Marisa Tomei from Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, or Samanth Morton in Control on the list.
Cate Blanchett - I’m Not There
Catherine Keener - Into the Wild
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
Vanessa Redgrave - Atonement
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Tommy Lee Jones - No Country for Old Men
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
ANIMATED FEATURE
Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie
ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roger Deakins - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Seamus McGarvey - Atonement
Janusz Kaminski - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Roger Deakins - No Country for Old Men
Robert Elswit - There Will Be Blood
SCREENPLAY BASED ON MATERIAL PREVIOUSLY PRODUCED OR PUBLISHED
Charlie Wilson's War - Aaron Sorkin
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Ronald Harwood
Into the Wild - Sean Penn
No Country for Old Men - Joel & Ethan Coen
There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson
SCREENPLAY WRITTEN DIRECTLY FOR THE SCREEN
Juno - Diablo Cody
Lars and the Real Girl - Nancy Oliver
Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy
Ratatouille - Brad Bird
The Savages - Tamara Jenkins
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